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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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