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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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