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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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