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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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