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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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