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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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