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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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