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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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