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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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