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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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