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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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