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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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