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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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