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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Thursday, 04 September 14
PUNJAB STATE POWER CORPORATION LIMITED OF INDIA HAS DECIDED TO BUY IMPORTED COAL - HINDUSTAN TIMES
COALspot.com: The Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) has decided to buy imported coal to run its thermal plants, as reported by Hindust ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS MAY GET MORE TIME ON ROYALTIES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that coal miners in Indonesia are likely to get more time to repay the government the royalties that were set off ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.90 (-1.68%) day on day and US$ 1.80 (-3.31%) per mt week on week. The ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
CAPESIZE : SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE FOR Q3/Q4 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market has experienced more activity this week. Rates for TA´s are up about 8% w-o-w, much lead by an increasing number ...
Wednesday, 03 September 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO. LTD INVITES BIDS FOR 1 MMT OF BITUMINOUS & SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: KOMIPO again in the market for 1 million tons of 5700 NAR and 4600 NAR coal for Jan – March 2015. South Korean state-owned util ...
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Showing 3506 to 3510 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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