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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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