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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
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Showing 3476 to 3480 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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