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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
Sunday, 03 August 14
LACK OF COAL SHIPMENTS FROM FAR EAST/SE ASIA, THE PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES CONTINUED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: This week, the freight rates were almost flat as charter rates were also almost steady from last week.
The BDI was up by 2.59 pc ...
Friday, 01 August 14
UNCERTAINTY IN ASIAN COAL MARKETS WHERE INDEX-LINKED PRICING DOMINATES - SGX
COALspot.com: In the past 3 years, seaborne thermal coal markets have been in a state of constant oversupply.
Reuters expects this oversupply ...
Friday, 01 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 19.4 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 31 July 14
CAPESIZE: CARGO VOLUMES, COAL IN PARTICULAR, PRESENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO EMPLOY A GROWING FLEET - FERNLEYS
Handy
Both the Atlantic and Pacific has improved in the supramax segment over the last week, said Fernleys in Its latest weekly report . There we ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
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