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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 July 14
Q3' 14, SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED $ 0.08 DAY ON DAY AND $ 0.68 WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 increased by just US$ 0.08 day on day and US$ 0.68 week on week. The swap was lost U ...
Monday, 28 July 14
S. KOREA'S KOSPO SEEKS 148K T OF 4700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co Ltd (KOSPO) is seeking 148,000 tonnes of 4,700 kcal/kg NCV steaming coal for shipment between October to Nove ...
Monday, 28 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. The swap for Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 showing slight improvement ...
Sunday, 27 July 14
RAMADAN HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA - VISTAAR INDIA
COALspot.com: The freight rates were almost steady as very slight improvement in BDI by about 1 pct. The BDI was at 739 points after improvin ...
Saturday, 26 July 14
COAL MINING COMPANIES CLOSED TEMPORARILY - THE JAKARTA POST
The Sarolangun regency administration in Jambi has suspended the operations of 10 coal mining companies in line with a circular issued by Regent Ce ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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