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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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