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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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