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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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