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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to bo ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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