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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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