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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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