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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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