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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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