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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES REMAINED FIRM FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady except for the Supramax in SE Asia region which continued to remain firm. The BDI was down by 1.5 ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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