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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 22 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LACKLUSTRE, DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF A NEW RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We might still be about six weeks far from the end of the year, but the projected by many analysts upcoming rally of the dry bulk market, hasn't ye ...
Friday, 22 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.3% W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
TAIPOWER TO PROCURE 750K MT OF 5500 GAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MAY - AUGUST 2014
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 750,000 metric tons of bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,500 kcal/kg on a ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
CAPESIZE : THE DOWNWARD TREND HAS TURNED INTO NOTABLE SPOT AND PERIOD IMPROVEMENT - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market experienced a general rate increase for most trades this week. More cargoes in the market and chrts looking for prompt t ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
PANAMAX MARKET RESUMED ITS NEGATIVE MOVEMENT FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The recovery noted the week prior in the dry Bulk market proved to be short-lived, as the BDI slipped back down to the low 1,500 point ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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