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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 03 December 13
PORT OF NEWCASTLE IN QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 1.22 MMT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 2, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.49 ...
Tuesday, 03 December 13
U.S PRODUCED 900.80 MMST YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 Novemb ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERY SHOWS A DECLINE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.63 percept d-d on Friday 29 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Sunday, 01 December 13
PANAMAX RATES HAVE REBOUNDED - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm last week with all the indices increased. Cape Index was gained highest this week which supports inc ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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