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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 06 December 13
INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTED A GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL TO EASE THE BAN ON EXPORTING UNPROCESSED ORE
COALspot.com: Indonesian House of Representatives rejected a proposal from Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik on to ease the ban on ex ...
Friday, 06 December 13
THE MINISTRY OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA FIXED DEC'13 HBA AT US$ 80.31
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 2.18 / MT ...
Friday, 06 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 82.8 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 06 December 13
PANAMAXES HAVE BEEN THE ' WEAPON OF CHOICE' BY MOST DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Low ship prices, the direct consequence of subdued freight rates for the larger part of 2013 have been the main driving force behind this year's ag ...
Thursday, 05 December 13
PANAMAX : THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
It has been an active week for the Supramax and Handysize segment. USG is almost boiling and charterers looking to cover their December stems ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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