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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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