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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
Wednesday, 01 January 14
COAL & OIL TO SET UP ANOTHER 1,600 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA - VENKATARAMANI
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group is planning to make additional investment of around US$ 1.61 billion to set up 1,600 mega w ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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