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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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