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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
QUIET FREIGHT MARKET DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: The market was soft this week with all indices down. However towards second half of the week the futures on segments was firming up.
...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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