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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.
Accord ...
Monday, 24 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with slo ...
Monday, 24 February 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY APRIL - JUNE 2014 SLIDES TO $ 58.60 PMT
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s the largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slide week ended ...
Monday, 24 February 14
Q1 2015 DELIVERY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT 2.62% HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 CLOSING SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.68 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.20 per mt as on Fr ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
SHIPPING POISED TO RALLY AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF DROP
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm with the dry bulk index up by 6.24 pct closing at 1,175 points week on week and the cape index w ...
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Showing 3836 to 3840 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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