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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 27 February 14
SHIPPING LOANS WORTH $5 BILLION HAVE CHANGED HANDS OVER THE PAST YEAR, AS FUNDS INVEST IN SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Funds investing in shipping has been the "talk of the town" over the past couple of years, as institutional investors, private equity and ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 26.68 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2. ...
Wednesday, 26 February 14
SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS HOLDING ON TO THEIR LEVELS; CAPES CORRECTING UPWARDS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market continued to improve this past week, on the back of rates for the smaller size s ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
GBCE, A COAL UPGRADING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER, APPOINTS RICHARD BULMAN AS PROJECT DIRECTOR
Press Release: GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today the appointment of Richard Bulman as Project Director. In this capacity Mr. Bulman ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
ULTRAMAXES ARE THE 'WEAPON OF CHOICE' FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a busy start in 2014, as the first month of the year was a rather active in terms of second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orderin ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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