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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 02 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY TO FIRM THIS PAST WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm this past week. The BDI was up 7.06 pct and closed at 1258 points and the cape index was also fi ...
Friday, 28 February 14
PTBA TO INCREASE ITS COAL TERMINAL'S LOADING CAPACITY TO 25 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY JULY 2014
COALspot.com: PT. Bukit Asam (PTBA), the Indonesian government owned coal miner operates several coal mining units in Sumatera as well as in Kaliman ...
Friday, 28 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 1.9% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 28 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FINDS ITS FOOTING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, hit by the low seasonal demand which is a typical characteristic of the first quarter of each year, is beginning to emerge from ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE ATLANTIC
Handy
The Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead b ...
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Showing 3826 to 3830 news of total 6871 |
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
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