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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
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Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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