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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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