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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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