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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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