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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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