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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 January 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE TO $ 61.25 FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.32 pmt month on month on Friday 3 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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