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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 30 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL TO BE PART OF INDEX DETERMINING POWER TARIFFS - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a significant move, power sector regulator CERC has decided to provide 50 per cent weightage for Indonesian coal in the benchmark index that is u ...
Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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