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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
INDONESIA RAISES COAL PRICE THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.59 / MT ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
NEWCASTLE COAL TERMINAL'S COAL EXPORTS SLIDE TO 3.54 MMT W/E 30 DECEMBER 13
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 30, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.54 ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
US COAL OUTPUT SLIDES 9 PCT WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 06 January 14
ARGUS LAUNCHES SPOT CFR EAST COAST INDIA COAL ASSESSMENTS
COALspot.com: Global energy and commodity news and price reporting agency Argus has announced today that, the company has launched CFR coal assessme ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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