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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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