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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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