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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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