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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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