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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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