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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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