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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
COAL GASIFICATION
IBC’s Coal Gasification conference explores the opportunities for coal gasification investment and development in Asia.
With depleting dome ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
SUPRAMAX : THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS MOVING ON A POSITIVE PATH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Cape - Despite holding their ground fairly well early on in the week, Capes in the Atlantic basin gave in to the mounting pressure fro ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI
Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
WIJAYA TRI UTAMA PURCHASES MICROCOAL TECHNOLOGIES' CLEAN COAL UPGRADING FACILITY
- First MCI commercial scale application of proprietary microwave technology to upgrade coal thermal output and reduce pollutants
- MicroCoal to re ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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